Think of a time when something you or "the experts" thought was going to happen did not, in fact, happen. How did you respond? Did it make you skeptical of experts, your own judgement or both?
Would you describe yourself as someone who is comfortable with unknowns?
Or do you feel much more comfortable in environments where results are predictable?
Or do you feel much more comfortable in environments where results are predictable?
One of the first examples that immediately came to mind was the 2019 Cleveland Browns. The experts believed that they would go to the playoffs and that they had a decent chance at winning the Superbowl just to not even make it to the playoffs and go 6-10. This lead me to start questioning the experts and my own gut instincts more and make my own informed predictions based on solid evidence. I would prefer to be in a more predictable environment than an unknown environment because I often plan for things ahead of time rather than try to improvise.
ReplyDeleteBrennan, I remember after the draft and preseason I had the same mindset as you. The Browns had all the hype going into the season, and with experts backing the noise I was for sure the the Browns were going to be good finally. I often look at the experts in sports and am constantly confused with how wrong they can be, but I let myself get caught up in the hype and totally forgot to look at any facts or evidence of how they would play together.
DeleteWhat I instantly thought of was the 2016 presidential election, given that the candidate who won the popular vote did not end up becoming President. I didn't become skeptical of experts or of my own judgement, but I did start to question the system that led to that event happening, namely the electoral college. I, personally, really do not like unpredictable environments, because I need to be able to be prepared for every eventuality.
ReplyDelete-Elizabeth Acree
Should systems always be questioned or should they only be questioned based on a person's own perceptions of a situation?
DeleteThings should really always be questioned, because even if a system works it can be improved. I just don’t like questioning things because then it makes them uncertain in my perception of them.
Delete- Elizabeth Acree
I have had many instances where I thought something would happen that did not. One big thing that comes to mind is the COVID-19 pandemic. I thought this whole issue would be over with by now. However, that is clearly not the case. Even experts have been unsure about many areas of this. Personally, this has not changed how I perceive experts. I am always a little skeptical. I like to take predictions or ideas with a grain of salt until I have evidence to back it up, though I do have moments where I fail to do so. As for my own judgment, I am probably a little more trustworthy of it, but I do like to try and assure those judgments I have. As for how comfortable I am with the unknown, I would say I am not. I can deal with it, but I would feel a lot better being able to predict results. That brings me to my question, is anyone comfortable with simply not knowing? I cannot imagine choosing to be in that position.
ReplyDeleteI do not think I have ever been too taken aback by the outcome of any situation. It does not matter to me whether the outcome was predicted by me or an expert. As a woman of science, I know it is always possible for even the most probable of events to not happen the way you expect. That is why I never judge an expert too harshly for being wrong about a prediction, you cannot be right about everything 100% of the time no matter how much you have studied the subject.
ReplyDeleteAs someone who works in fast food, I literally have no idea what I'm going to walk into each day I am scheduled there. So yes, I would say I am very comfortable with uncertainty. Nothing is guaranteed and I am fine with that. However, as a person with anxiety I do like a degree of predictability. Crazy things may happen at my job, but I ground myself with the certainty that the day must end someway somehow.
- Sam Ray
A wise man once told me that any "truth" should be taken with a grain of salt. I think the same can be said about any prediction. There are so many things in life that people try to predict, and rarely are they right. Life is just a big guessing game. I tend to think that I am flexible and can adapt to change, but then change happens and I don't want something different. Am I the only one like that? I sure hope not.
ReplyDeleteI will be the first to tell you that you are certainly not the only one like that. I am also one who does not like change or situations with many “unknowns”, even though I am trying to become more flexible. As you said, life is very unpredictable, and it is not possible for us to prepare for everything it may give us. However, something I try to remember (and am working on improving) is that no matter my situation, I can almost always control my response to it.
DeleteI think of times that there is supposed to be a big thunder storm or tornado in Oklahoma. The weathermen or "the experts" will tell us two to three days before there is supposed to be a big storm for us to be prepared. They will give everyone anxiety because they are sure there is going to be a bad storm. Then nothing will even happen and everyone got worried for no reason. I am not saying our weathermen are always wrong, I just know that this has happened to me multiple times and I have gotten worried for nothing.
ReplyDeleteI would describe myself as someone who is more comfortable in environments where the results are predictable rather than an environment where there are many unknowns. However, when I am in a situation where I do not know what is going to happen, I trust that God will get me through it.
-Anna Herd
One experience that made me question my and other’s judgements is the time I accidently drove into Mexico. I was in El Paso Texas and had to pick up my dad from the boarder, but did not know the area well. My dad was giving me directions over the phone as I was driving. My dad frequently traveled to Mexico, so I was very confident that he knew what he was saying. Not to mention, he was very confident as he was guiding me in real-time. However, he actually had no clue where he was, guided me across the bridge to Mexico, and got me stuck on the Mexican side of the boarder without a passport.
ReplyDeleteThe whole experience made me trust my dad’s sense of direction less and helped me realize that even if some people think their prediction is right, they could be wrong. I typically feel more comfortable in an environment where I can predict results because I naturally try to think of every possible outcome to a situation. However, I often find myself working in an unpredictable environment and functioning well.
-Alejandro Arriaga
One of the most recurring, and disappointing, instances I can recall of an expert being wrong is the weekly weather forecast given by a news station’s expert meteorologist. It seems as if nine times out of ten their predictions are wrong. The instance that made me lose the most faith in their accuracy was on my birthday one year. The meteorologist predicted snow for the night before my birthday almost a week in advance and I could not contain my excitement! As the day creeps closer I get more and more impatient, but I knew I just had to wait a little bit longer. When I woke up on the day of my birthday, there was no snow outside. There wasn’t even any ice on the roads. This disappointment definitely altered my faith in the accuracy of experts, but it also taught me that somethings were just plain unpredictable sometimes. I feel that I personally do okay with certain unknowns, while others can drive me up the wall with wanting to know. I think a balance between those two states, being okay with unknowns and being driven up the wall by them, is important. A need to understand the unknown has led to some of our greatest discoveries as a species, but we should also be aware that some discoveries are meant for another place in time.
ReplyDelete-Dixie Redman
1)The first example I thought of was the Los Angeles Lakers in 2013. The team had a prime Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, and Dwight Howard. All of these players were completely dominating the game of basketball at the time so seeing them all together, they looked completely unstoppable. Experts, NB analysts, and even my dad all thought this was going to be one of the best teams to ever play. But for as good as they could have been, Kobe got injured early on, and Nash and Howard were both use to being such dominant players that they were unable to play together because they both felt like they needed the ball in order for the team to survive. In the end, it was their greed for the ball that caused the team to struggle the whole season. After this, it was no longer “the winning team has the best players” but more closely seen as “teams that have the best chemistry will thrive”.
ReplyDelete2) I personally would not describe myself as someone who is comfortable with the “unknowns”. When something is an “unknown” I tend to worry, become anxious, and focus on which things could go wrong rather than a positive outlook on what things could go right. I feel much more comfortable, calm, and relaxed when I’m in an environment where I have a good idea on what to expect or if I have an idea of the way things will go.
- Parker Milligan
I am currently working as a cashier at Pruett's Foods here in Ada. There are days that we have thousands of customers come through and days that we only have a few hundred come through. You can usually tell when the fast and slow days will be based on the day of the week, if it is a pay week, and if WIC and Food Stamps just started over for the month. The manager will make the schedule according to how many cashiers and baggers we might need based on these variables. Last week, there was a day that only I and two other cashiers and two baggers were scheduled to work. This was fine until people were getting off work and coming through with carts full to the top of WIC items. Turns out, the summer WIC was going to expire at midnight and people did not want it to go to waste. With the mass demand for checking and bagging of groceries, we were quickly overwhelmed.
ReplyDeleteBy the end of my shift it had slowed down, but we were all exhausted and a little upset no one knew about this variable when they made the schedule. I would consider myself as a person that like to know what I am in for on a given day or week, so this was a rather unpleasant experience.
-Adeline Daniel
I’ve always had a bit of skepticism when someone, even experts, try to make predictions. Being born and raised in Oklahoma I’ve learned that more often than not weather predictions are wrong. Not only that, but it seems as though predictions from large media outlets within the past 4 years have been wrong often. I believe the reason for this is because experts rely on expected reactions from people, even when put into new and unexpected situations. Most recently with COVID-19, experts expected the virus to be contained and dealt with by March, then by June, then by July, etc. What experts did not predict was several mess ups and mishaps from the government and the population. COVID-19 became a political belief instead of a pandemic, which is pretty hard to expect. I myself struggle with anxiety so unknowns are extremely difficult to deal with, I like knowing what’s coming so I can prepare myself for it and be ready when important things come. I feel much more comfortable when I am certain of what’s to come.
ReplyDeleteI can think of a couple times where experts in a certain field were proven wrong. One of the most notable in my mind were the 2019 New England Patriots football team. As a Patriots fan myself, I always have hope in my team, however looking at the facts realistically, it seemed they were poised to struggle that year after having many years of success. They did not have the talent on offense that they had previously relied on. They went into the playoffs as the underdog of the AFC (American Football Conference). However, they defied the odds and won Superbowl LIII. They beat the Los Angeles Rams in the lowest scoring Superbowl in NFL history. This proved almost every sports analyst’s initial post-season prediction wrong. In theme with the first chapter of the book, you cannot always predict how a team or player will perform strictly off numbers. – Preston Milligan
ReplyDeleteFor me, the first example that came to mind where the experts' prediction did not pan out was when the Cleveland Cavaliers drafted Anthony Bennett with the first overall pick of the 2013 NBA Draft. Bennett was very efficient in college, but what we saw from him was a small sample size since his first and only year at UNLV was plagued by injury. After I saw they drafted him, it made me wonder why they would take a chance on someone who played limited minutes in only one season with the very first pick in the draft. However, I decided that since the people who were running the Cavaliers were "experts'', they must have seen something in Bennett that would explain the draft selection. Fast forward to now, when it has been decided that Bennett is arguably the biggest bust in NBA history. This makes me very skeptical of not only basketball executives, but all so-called "experts" for every professional sports team. Now, every time I see a player drafted with a high pick in any draft, I always wonder if we have another wasted pick that will make me question the management even more.
ReplyDeleteI would say that I am comfortable with things that are unknown. Sure, certain situations might make me uneasy, such as waiting to hear back the results for my grandmothers' doctor’s appointment, but I would not say that it is an unhealthy amount. I believe all people would report feelings of anxiety on an undetermined upcoming event that are relevant to them. I also think that most everyone would feel more comfortable in a predictable environment. Some people might thrive in the unknown, but I still think they would rather be able to truly know everything to expect. The truth of the matter is that the world we live in is extremely unpredictable. I would be willing to say that there are not many people that could have predicted all that has gone on in this past year alone. It is important that each individual learns to thrive and overcome anxiety and worry, because this world will offer no small amount of it in our lifetimes.
I am from the Bahamas. We're located in the Atlantic Ocean and therefore we are usually faced with the possibility of a Hurricane between June and November (hurricane season) every year. I believe it was the summer of 2018 when we experienced Hurricane Matthew, which was a category 5 hurricane. The experts strongly suggested that persons that lived in certain areas along the coastline that Hurricane Matthew would start impacting us from should evacuate because there would be storm surges between 7 and 10 feet. I had family in those areas that opted to stay. My home was right outside the predicted area to experience the storm surge but my mom still went ahead and moved everything valuable to the second floor in case of flooding. We ourselves even seriously contemplated evacuating because of the warnings and the insistence from weather forecasters that the storm surge would happen. At the end of the day, my family members that stayed were fine. I believe they did have some flooding, but nothing along the lines of what was expressed on the forecast. My home was completely fine with the exception of a few shingles from the roof flying off (and that's typically the worst that we experience so it wasn't a big deal).
ReplyDeleteThat experience really did make me skeptical of the experts. It's always better safe than sorry and I'm very thankful that they weren't completely right, but the amount of fear that they placed on myself and many other Bahamians was kind of upsetting in the aftermath. That could have played a huge factor for why persons did not pay as much attention to forecasters when Hurricane Dorian was on the way in 2019 and citizens chose to stay in their homes even though they were strongly advised to evacuate. That caused many persons their lives. So, now although I am skeptical of them, my family and I do still take precaution, preparing for the worst, hoping for the best but not getting all frantic like we did with Hurricane Matthew.
I’m not at all comfortable with the unknown. I do better with things being for sure this or that. The in between is an issue for me and I think it’s because I myself am an indecisive person and it’s quite frustrating on a daily basis. When things are unknown or uncertain around me, it makes it twice as hard for me to make decisions. With that being the case, I always want as many things that aren’t within my control to be known and definite. So, I’m sure you can imagine that the fluidity of Covid-19 has being a very unpleasant encounter for me as it has been for many others. I feel much more comfortable in environments with predictable results. It puts my mind at ease, helps me to make decisions a bit easier and it keeps my anxiety at bay.