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| Still from "The Wizard of Oz" (1939) |
206. According to Tversky and Kahneman, when people consider events that have taken place, they greatly overestimate how much they "saw it coming."
Given the recent shocking developments of the Covid-19 pandemic, whose scope so few people could have imagined, do you think people today are likely to be more aware of their limitations when making future plans and cautious about making predictions going forward?
Or are people just as likely as they ever were to overestimate their ability to anticipate what is going to happen next both in their personal lives and in the world more generally?
Has the pandemic given us a lasting lesson or at a fundamental psychological level are we the same people now that we were before the pandemic hit?
From my observations, people who have been personally affected by the virus, whether directly or indirectly, seem most likely to become more aware of their limitations and more cautious about making predictions in the future. Many of these people have either experienced the unimaginable consequences of the virus themselves or have seen them affect family members or patients; therefore, they may more easily realize their limitations in predicting future events. On the other hand, I think people who have not been affected by the virus personally or who believe its level of severity is not as high as reported are more likely to continue to overestimate their ability to anticipate personal and worldly future events. While these people’s lives have changed (from quarantine to mask mandates and social distancing), the unpredictability of these changes are not quite as great. Thus, these individuals seem more likely to continue to overestimate their ability to “see things coming”.
ReplyDeleteOverall, as a country, I think the pandemic has made a lasting impression, although I do believe it is too early to determine if we will respond to this experience as a lesson learned. On the psychological level, I think most people’s perspectives—whether of their health, the job industry, medicine, or the government—have changed in some way. Now, if the change will make a lasting impression on us, again, only time will tell.
206. I think people who are hindering their plans and limiting their contact from others are being cautious usually for the sake of a loved one or others loved ones. People are allowing the pandemic to control their plans and their attendance to public outings. For me at least I believe the only thing that has changed psychologically is always ensuring I have a mask in my car.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the coronavirus pandemic came out of nowhere, I believe that people will still make plans as they always have, and not worry too much about the future. Although things may happen that no one anticipated, we can not live in fear of the next bad thing that will happen. Yes, it is good to plan for such things, but to always anticipate them is miserable. We must go about living our lives and trust that God has a plan for us all. Even though the pandemic has been a big issue, it is not as horrible as the media has told us. Personally, I have not been affected by the pandemic psychologically, the only difference being that I appreciate my time with loved ones more. I believe things that many would call conspiracy, and one of those things is that the coronavirus pandemic was strictly political. If the pandemic has taught me anything, it is that the government can not be trusted now more than ever.
ReplyDeleteWhenever I ask people about their future (in a University setting), they continue to list their plans as if the virus never happened. I believe I do this myself. However, when I ask about simple future summer plans, I get a reply like, “If COVID-19 is still in play…”, or “If work will let me travel…”, or “If there is a vaccine…” Personally, I think it depends on what part of your future you are anticipating.
ReplyDeleteMany people are being hindered by the pandemic, as they rightly should be. There are just as many people who refuse to be hindered and are making plans and going forward just as they would otherwise be doing. I doubt the world will ever be the same, and our perception of it will be changed for quite a while. I think it also depends on the length of the pandemic, as a lasting change would be spurred by a longer cause.
ReplyDelete-Darian Shaw
I can agree with you Darian. There is a certain degree at which people associate themselves to come to recognize the pandemic as a problem to them. Some conditions could be that the person may have loved ones that they are often near to that they will be worried about in the case of them pandemic, themselves, locations that have been affected by the pandemic, consideration that they could be possible to spreaders after having no symptoms, etc. Many follow the thought that there are many others who got out frequently with or without a mask, they could be possible super-spreaders and unless they stop, the contribution of just yourself staying at home is insignificant. However, every person can make a contribution if said person is isolated from the chance of spreading it. I don't think most people would ultimately be change to be able to ultimately correctly, for the most part, be able to predict the possible negative outcome that is either present from the pandemic, or the future. Wisdom and experience are a contributor or a warning sign, but lots of people will not let the pandemic or the catching of the virus slow them down.
Delete-Toby Pyle